Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia

Transnational and non-state threats including international organized crime, terrorism, illicit trafficking (in drugs, wildlife, humans, arms, etc.), piracy, infectious disease, and illegal migration flows are major concerns in Southeast Asia. This paper examines IPCC projections for climate change to the region and discusses possible impacts of these changes upon transnational security. Overall, climate change could increase potential vulnerability to various transnational security threats. Southeast Asian livelihood and social systems will be pressured, while state and civil society capacity will be strained. This will intensify existing vulnerabilities to non-state security threats and raise the overall level of vulnerability and risk to both human and state security. Predicted climate change impacts are also likely to strengthen or help revive sub-state networks that have traditionally responded to environmental change and pressure via violence, crime, smuggling, banditry, trafficking, terrorism, and other such activities. This will contribute to the evolution, expansion, and growth of “new” war fighting groups while raising overall vulnerability to non-state threats from local to global scales.     

Positioning the World Bank

This article examines the rationale for the World Bank and explores whether its objective is best served by its current mix of activities. We are critical of the Bank's reliance on conditionality, and advocate evolution into a Knowledge Bank, which would lend with few conditions to countries with good policies and good institutions, and would concentrate on the provision of knowledge and technical assistance, rather than lending, in countries where the policy framework is poor. We also advocate an expansion in the Bank's role as a provider of global public goods; we critically examine the Banks role in relation to financial crises.     

A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid

In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource.     

微机电陀螺速率传感器传输特性研究

随着现代科技的发展,传感器技术已经成为一门现代科技的前沿技术。在国防和军事领域,随着微电子技术、通信技术和计算机技术,特别是MEMS技术的迅速发展,军用传感器技术水平以惊人的速度在不断提升,它在航空、航天、火炮炮控系统、军用智能机器人等领域被广泛的应用。由于传感器会产生时漂,某些参数可能发生变化,从而影响依据其初始标定数据建立的输入-输出特性,最终会造成测量误差。本文引入微机电陀螺速率传感器技术,在使用该传感器之前,对该速率陀螺传感器进行传输特性研究。     

那些生命中的光与影——记车吉心的摄影艺术

罗丹有句名言:生活中不是缺乏美,而是缺乏发现.从这个意义上说,车吉心先生为我们擦亮了发现自然之美的眼睛.他带领我们走向兴味盎然的自然之路,拆解我们与自然之间的不应有的藩篱,回归自然.     

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.     

论品牌价值与品牌战略

在市场经济发展日趋深化的今天,品牌对于企业生存和发展的重要性已众所周知,品牌战略已成为众多知名企业在市场竞争中立于不败之地的法宝。本文指出了品牌的作用,也就找到了品牌价值的来源,探讨了我国企业品牌发展中存在的问题,提出了实施品牌战略的策略。